2022 MIDTERM ELECTIONS PREDICTIONS FULL
While the composition of the electorate will likely shift, at this point young people seem as, if not more engaged, than they were in recent midterms,” said IOP Polling Director John Della Volpe, author of the 2022 book Fight: How Gen Z Is Channeling Their Fear and Passion to Save America. (See full analysis from John Della Volpe here.)
Their contempt for a system that favors the elite and is overwhelmingly partisan is clear, but at the same time they see a role for government and are unlikely to abandon those most in need.
"While this is an off-year election there’s no evidence in this survey that young Americans are off the grid. "Elected officials from both parties would benefit from listening to young Americans and as we head into the midterm elections.” Our new poll shows a pragmatic idealism as they consider the state of our democracy and the concerning challenges they face in their lives,” said IOP Director Mark Gearan ‘78. “In the past two election cycles, America’s youngest voters have proven themselves to be a formidable voting bloc with a deep commitment to civic engagement. The Spring 2022 survey, conducted between March 15 and March 30, also builds upon the work of the Spring 2021 and Fall 2021 polls to examine the troubling mental health crisis among young Americans. And the poll also finds that at two-to-one margins, young Americans are supportive of greater parental control over K-12 education and supportive of candidates that support teaching K-12 students that racism – intentional or not – is a fixture of American laws and institutions.įor over twenty years, the Harvard Public Opinion Project has provided the most comprehensive look at the political opinions, voting trends, and views on public service held by young Americans. When it comes to student loans, 85% of young Americans favor some form of government action on student loan debt, but only 38% favor total debt cancellation. Nearly half of LGBTQ youth feel under attack “a lot.”
The Spring 2022 Harvard Youth Poll finds that 59% of young Black Americans, 43% of young Asian Americans, and 37% of young Hispanic Americans feel “under attack” “a lot” in America. President Biden’s job approval has dropped to 41% among young Americans, down from 46% in the IOP Fall 2021 poll and down 18% overall in the past year. A national poll released today by the Institute of Politics at Harvard Kennedy School indicates that while 18-to-29-year-olds are on track to match 2018’s record-breaking youth turnout in a midterm election this November and prefer Democratic control 55%-34%, there was a sharp increase in youth believing that “political involvement rarely has tangible results” (36%), their vote “doesn’t make a difference” (42%) and agreement that “politics today are no longer able to meet the challenges our country is facing” (56%).
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